Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The average figure of daily killings per month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh official statistics. However, public safety analysts have advised that murder figures might not indicate enhanced national security.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the least figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is especially true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not useful for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it may mask days when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.