Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.